A friend of mine who lives in Charleston, South Carolina wrote me in mid-November that:
"This week, we have tides of over 7 feet (for Charleston, they are usually 6 (range 5.7-6.2). Traffic this morning was at a standstill due to the Hwy going downtown was flooded (1+ feet!) as it entered the peninsula. Everyone was trying to turn around and not drive thru salt water. 3 times this year, the king tides have been over 7 feet! I do think this is one thing that the coastal areas agree on: yes, there is climate change and we see it every day.'
Photo: 400 Australians put heads in the sand for Bondi Beach climate protest, November 3014. Image: Jenni Ryall / Mashable
Here is a news item about the November high tides from Station WTOC in Savannah:
'US Hwy 80 reopens after tidal flooding blocks traffic to/from Tybee. Nov. 14 2016. 'TYBEE ISLAND, GA (WTOC) - Officials have reopened U.S. Highway 80 in both directions to/from Tybee Island after tidal flooding shut it down early Monday. The city advised that a high tide of close to 10 feet was predicted for shortly after 7 a.m. Metro and Tybee Island police closed the road around 7:30 a.m. It remained closed until the water receded around 8:40 a.m. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for the Coastal Empire and South The Carolina Lowcountry until 10 a.m.'
These high tides are not just normal high tides: they are on top of a sea level rise of about 8 inches so far along the Atlantic coast. Sea level rise, along with other effects of global warming is not a myth, a conspiracy by climate scientists, or due to a natural climate cycle. The rise is a real effect caused by a warming ocean and melting of polar ice sheets. By 2100, sea level could be 3 feet higher, or even more. Just go to a beach at normal high tide - in the near future, this will be the normal low tide.
Now is not the time to put our heads in the sand (see photo above in a demonstration against an Australian leader's anti-climate science stands)!
Here is an excerpt from the last chapter in the Marsh Mud and Mummichogs book about the potential impacts of a rising sea on the Georgia coast:
'An even more worrisome consequence of a warming planet is sea level rise. Glaciers and ice sheets at the north and south poles are wasting away; all their melt water eventually runs into the ocean, steadily raising sea level.
The level of the world ocean has risen and fallen many tens of feet over past geological eras. During the peak of the last glacial period about 21,000 years ago, when vast amounts of water were locked up in ice, sea level dropped to as much as 400 feet lower than at present. Broad swaths of continental shelf, now shallow coastal ocean, then were dry land. By sonar soundings, ancient river valleys can be detected cleaving the flat expanses of offshore shelves. During the grip of the global deep freeze, sea islands and salt marshes were at the edges of the coastal shelves. Starting about 19,000 years ago, the world warmed and the continental ice sheets began to melt, pouring large volumes of water into the sea. The height of the invading tides rose with sea level. Each high tide reached farther across the marsh and onto the sea islands. Eventually the islands were completely inundated. The rise of the sea was inexorable, about three to four inches per year, three feet per century. During some periods, more abrupt rises occurred: up to 50 feet per century, equivalent to a foot every two years. The marshes and sea islands retreated inland or disappeared altogether for a time. After sea level stabilized as the last continental ice sheets melted, the present day location of marshes and islands was finally established. Over the last 5000 years, the Georgia coastline has looked pretty much as it does today.
Increasing global temperatures, due to accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, are set to disrupt the pleasant balance of clement weather and constant sea level under which human civilizations have developed and thrived. According to the Fifth Assessment Report of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), projected increase in sea level could be as much as three feet by 2100, a pace not seen since the end of the last glacial period. Once the global climate reaches a tipping point beyond which the melting of the polar ice caps is inevitable, continuing rise in sea height will be unstoppable.
In their book ‘The Rising Sea’, Orrin Pilkey and Rob Young relate the increase in sea level expected if there were a complete disintegration of these ice sheets. A total loss of the ice sheets covering Greenland would result in a rise of 24 feet. Melting of the two great ice sheets on the continent of Antarctica has the potential to increase sea level by a staggering 187 feet. The rise caused by all polar ice sheet melting would be over 200 feet. Pilkey and Young caution that, while scientists can’t predict how quickly the ice sheets might release so much water into the ocean, we can’t count on a uniform rate of sea level increase. Ice sheet disintegration can be non-linear, speeding up during some periods, perhaps to a foot per decade.
The marshes and sea islands of the Georgia coast are already vulnerable to weather events such as hurricanes as destructive as the disastrous storm of 1898. Rising sea height will add to their vulnerability. The highest land on Georgia sea islands is only about 25 feet above the present mean sea level. A rise of ocean height of just three feet would inundate the island beaches and surrounding marshes. Further increase in sea level would eat away at the bordering trees and shrubs, killing them and washing away the sandy soil. Coastal freshwater ponds and aquifers will be first tainted and then swamped by the salt in the invading sea. The sea islands will gradually become uninhabitable for people, and then for the land mammals, reptiles, and birds that call them home.
Southeastern sea islands and marshes may retreat inland as has happened in past eras, although coastal habitats will remain unstable as long as sea height continues to rise at a rate unprecedented in recent geological history. Estimates of the maximum annual rate of sea level rise beyond which salt marshes would drown vary. Along the coast of Massachusetts the tidal range is low and little sediment flows into the fringing salt marshes. Here, a sea level rise greater than 5 millimeters, about 1/5 of an inch, per year, would flood the salt marshes faster than they could retreat. For the southeastern coast of the United States, where the tidal range is much greater and loads of silt and clay are deposited on the marshes from coastal rivers, the marshes would be more resilient. Models suggest that Georgia salt marshes could likely keep up with an annual sea level increase averaging 10 millimeters (1 centimeter), or about 2/5 of an inch. A faster rate of sea level rise would drown and eventually degrade and wash away the marshes, leaving bare mud flats where once verdant cordgrass meadows nurtured a thriving food web. At the same time, beaches and dunes would steadily erode away on the ocean side of the islands, succumbing to higher and higher tides.
A rise in sea height of 3 feet, or about 1 meter, during this century is equivalent to an average rate of just over 10 millimeters (1 centimeter) per year. Current sea level rise is about 3 millimeters per year; the rate is bound to increase as Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets melt away. Pilkey and Young suggest that a 3-foot rise in sea level is probably a minimum estimate; the rise could be as much as 6 feet by the end of this century. They also worry that in some regions, coastal development has robbed marshes and beaches of space to migrate into. This is a grim scenario for these vibrant, bountiful ecosystems. The problem of loss of coastal marshes is not limited to the Georgia shore; in their 2009 review ‘Impacts of global climate change and sea-level rise on tidal wetlands,’ Stevenson and Kearney concluded that if global warming does result in a sea level rise of more than three feet by 2100: ‘…as much as 90 percent of the tidal marshes worldwide could be in jeopardy....’
So why did the U.S. just elect for our President and Vice President two men who are climate change deniers? Trump has made very clear that his administration will seek to disengage from the global effort to slow global warming by decreasing use of dirty energy in favor of clean, renewable energy sources. Under Trump, the U.S. would back out of the Paris Climate Agreement, roll back regulation of greenhouse gas emissions, and cut funding for climate change research.
A quip from the 'Save the Planet' movement of the 1970's went something like: 'Environmentalists may be annoying as neighbors, but will be remembered as honored ancestors.' Now is the time to be very, very annoying on the subject of global warming, and especially sea level rise!
Be informed! There is plenty of information on the web, but there is much mis-information as well. A great source to learn about the science of global warming is the website of Skeptical Science. Also, the report 'Encroaching Tides: How Sea Level Rise and Tidal Flooding Threaten U.S. East and Gulf Coast Communities over the Next 30 Years/ Union of Concerned Scientists October 2014 is available on-line.
Below is the Pilkey and Young (2009) reference cited in the book, and three more books on sea level rise published subsequently.
Pilkey & Young. 2009. 'The Rising Sea'. Washington: Island Press.
Amazon blurb: In The Rising Sea, Orrin H. Pilkey and Rob Young warn that many other coastal areas may be close behind. Prominent scientists predict that the oceans may rise by as much as seven feet in the next hundred years. That means coastal cities will be forced to construct dikes and seawalls or to move buildings, roads, pipelines, and railroads to avert inundation and destruction. The question is no longer whether climate change is causing the oceans to swell, but by how much and how quickly. Pilkey and Young deftly guide readers through the science, explaining the facts and debunking the claims of industry-sponsored “skeptics.” They also explore the consequences for fish, wildlife—and people. While rising seas are now inevitable, we are far from helpless. By making hard choices—including uprooting citizens, changing where and how we build, and developing a coordinated national response—we can save property, and ultimately lives. With unassailable research and practical insights, The Rising Sea is a critical first step in understanding the threat and keeping our heads above water.
Englander, 2012. High Tide On Main Street: Rising Sea Level and the Coming Coastal Crisis. The Science Bookshelf, Boca Raton Florida.
Amazon blurb: 'NEW 2nd Edition (10-16-13) of best selling book that described a superstorm hitting Atlantic City and New York City -- exactly one week before Sandy. Just one of dozens of scenarios in this amazing book. Find out the other forecasts. Rave reviews from experts and Amazon readers. Fully updated and revised. New Introduction by Governor Christine Todd Whitman. For 6,000 years sea level has changed little. Now it it has started rising again, moving the shoreline too. In clear, easy-to-understand language, this book explains: * The science behind sea level rise, plus the myths and partial truths used to confuse the issue. * The surprising forces that will cause sea level to rise for 1,000 years, as well as the possibility of catastrophic rise this century. * Why the devastating economic effects will not be limited to the coasts. * Why coastal property values will go “underwater” long before the land does, perhaps as early as this decade. * Five points of “intelligent adaptation” that can help individuals, businesses, and communities protect investments now and in the future.
Pilkey, Pilkey & Pilkey. 2016. 'Retreat from a Rising Sea: Hard Choices in an Age of Climate Change.' Columbia University Press.
Amazon blurb: 'Melting ice sheets and warming oceans are causing the seas to rise. By the end of this century, hundreds of millions of people living at low elevations along coasts will be forced to retreat to higher and safer ground. Because of sea-level rise, major storms will inundate areas farther inland and will lay waste to critical infrastructure, such as water-treatment and energy facilities, creating vast, irreversible pollution by decimating landfills and toxic-waste sites. This big-picture, policy-oriented book explains in gripping terms what rising oceans will do to coastal cities and the drastic actions we must take now to remove vulnerable populations.
The authors detail specific threats faced by Miami, New Orleans, New York, and Amsterdam. Aware of the overwhelming social, political, and economic challenges that would accompany effective action, they consider the burden to the taxpayer and the logistics of moving landmarks and infrastructure, including toxic-waste sites. They also show readers the alternative: thousands of environmental refugees, with no legitimate means to regain what they have lost. The authors conclude with effective approaches for addressing climate-change denialism and powerful arguments for reforming U.S. federal coastal management policies.'
Hine, Chambers, Clayton, Hafen & Michum. 2016. 'Sea Level Rise in Florida: Science, Impacts, and Options', University Press of Florida, Gainesville.
Amazon blurb:
“A scientifically credible and highly readable account of what is likely the greatest threat to Florida’s environment, economy, and culture over the coming decades.”
Every Floridian should read this book. It is the clearest and most readable description of how and why the sea level changes and what the future has in store for us.”—Orrin H. Pilkey, coauthor of Global Climate Change: A Primer Sea levels are rising—globally and in Florida. Climatologists, geologists, oceanographers, and the overwhelming majority of the scientific community expect a continuation of this trend for centuries to come due to climate change, ocean warming, and ice mass loss. While Florida’s natural history indicates that there is nothing new about the changing elevation of the sea, what is new is its accelerating pace. Also new—and alarming—is the ever-growing, immobile human infrastructure near the coasts: high-rise condos, suburban developments, tourist meccas, and international metropolises. In a state where much of the landscape is topographically low and underlain by permeable limestone, the stakes are particularly high. Modern-day sea level rise, with potential impacts to large land areas and populations, poses unprecedented challenges for sustainability, urban planning, and political action. This book offers an in-depth examination of the cycle of sea levels in the past and the science behind the current measurements and the future projections. The authors assess the most likely range of sea level rise in Florida based on a synthesis of projections for the next hundred years. They also discuss ongoing and potential consequences for natural marine and coastal systems and how we can begin to plan strategically for the inevitable changes."